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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple pattern. It often functions as a form of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a direct line: the coach who oversaw the largest improvement is handed the prize. In practice, it sparks an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent leadership or simply the biggest upset.

However the latest competition is distinctly unique. The group of candidates is unusually strong. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with reigning conference champions declining and recent also-rans ascending in unison. In an normal season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and entertaining year, he's facing five other outstanding candidates.

This is how the hypothetical ballot ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper system, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his rare talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the system rather than improvising. It is an attack built solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been able to conjure big plays out of nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost each bet – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a normal season, he would be the runaway favorite. Yet the current isn't a typical season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But he falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has mastered the off-field aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his early public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, he hired first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. But he has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

After an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the track. A midseason setback had the team wobbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away since that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him just one spot ahead of peers.

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