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A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few politicians or activists want to engage with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will win here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."

Call for Wider Dialogue

Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."