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PHEVs release almost five times greater global warming emissions than official data show, according to a new analysis.

Growing Gap In Lab and Actual Emissions

Data shows that PHEVs release only one-fifth lower CO₂ than traditional petrol and diesel vehicles, according to research conducted by a advocacy group. This contrasts significantly with lab estimates, which assumed a three-quarters decrease in pollution.

Researchers examined information from onboard energy use monitors of eight hundred thousand cars registered in Europe between 2021 and 2023. They found that actual CO₂ output from PHEVs in 2023 were 4.9 times greater than lab estimates, up from three and a half times in 2021.

“Actual CO2 output are rising, while lab-reported emissions are decreasing,” stated a lead analyst participating in the report. “This gap is growing and creates a significant issue. As a result, PHEVs pollute nearly as much as gasoline vehicles.”

Primary Factors Driving the Emissions Gap

Analysts linked the majority of the difference to inflated estimates of the “electric driving share” – the ratio of kilometers travelled in electric mode relative to total distance. They determined that just 27% of travel was completed in electric mode, whereas lab estimates assumed over four-fifths.

Additionally, when operating in EV mode, pollution amounts were well above lab projections. This happened because electric motors were not strong sufficient to function alone, leading to combustion motors burning gasoline for nearly one-third of the travel covered in electric mode.

Regulatory and Economic Implications

According to estimates, the lowballing of PHEV CO2 output enabled several large carmaker companies to avoid over €5bn in fines between 2021 and 2023, by artificially simplifying adherence with European Union average fleet CO₂ targets.

Additionally, drivers of PHEVs could spend approximately €500 more annually in running expenses than would be estimated under laboratory conditions.

“The bold statements that automakers like to make about their PHEV vehicles are obviously way off the mark,” commented a automotive analyst. “Buyers are being misled into believing that by buying a PHEV, they are helping the planet and saving money. Actually, PHEVs are little improved than standard petrol and diesel vehicles in terms of fuel consumption, CO₂ production, and operating expenses.”

Policy Discussion and Industry Lobbying

Hybrid cars have recently been brought again into political discussions as carmakers have pressed the EU to weaken CO₂ targets. A planned prohibition on new combustion engine cars in 2035 has faced intense lobbying from the car industry and opposition from member states with significant automotive manufacturing.

Several senior officials have proposed plug-in hybrids as a possible “flexibility” option to introduce in the regulation.

One external energy economics expert, who was unaffiliated with the study, called the report a “highly valuable addition” after a long period in which segments of the automotive sector claimed there was insufficient information to properly evaluate real-world CO2 output.

“These findings show, beyond any doubt, that the gap between lab and actual PHEV fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions is much, much larger than for petrol or conventional cars,” the expert said. “All regulatory adjustments regarding PHEVs should be implemented with utmost care and in the light of that data.”