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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action

The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.

Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.

Continuous Dangers

Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.

Every new initiative from US leadership follows the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.

Strategic Calculations

It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.

The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These two forces are influencing discussions.

Summary and Prospects

It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.

While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.